Lei feng's network (search for "Lei feng's network" public attention): author Jiangnan fenqing, benevolence and intellectual asset management partner, founder of 1535 South. Public: the wind blows South (jrjnfq).
One thing, don't do it too early, and not the wrong thing in the world, only the right time to match the right thing, the same thing, done early may be illegal, doing almost exactly, is innovation.
Global on not exists a not constraints financial regulatory of national, no must clear of rules and border, encourages financial savage growth, last of results is a to feather, and national adverse, and on real heart venture innovation of people for is a very bad of things, last of results is good to bad pay, what innovation are can encourages, but financial innovation need carefully, because he on around industry on national economic of negative role too big.
United States called Silicon Valley, Wall Street sent the battle for a long time, finally found that Wall Street has the final say, you Silicon Valley story better, funding amount, last sentence Wall Street analysts asked, you don't make money? Do not make money, lower their expectations and sell, sell, sell, it's as simple as that.
First: the issues of money and valuables
About Internet banking, I should say relatively early for business operations in China to try individuals, in 07, I found that when the market has a chance is the bank customer is different from the standard, risk appetite is different, so at that time, I tried to set up a network of financial institutions, called Palm-friends network. Mainly want a large number of small and medium enterprises to include but not limited to, operating model, financial data, and so on through the Internet, collection, then we in the background according to our own understanding of the various financial institutions, and for online distribution.
So, while we ourselves can greatly help business customers reduce the cost and efficiency improvements. So that they no longer have a home to go to the Bank, saved a lot of time, photocopying costs and the cost of a dinner.
Finally, we have found that this business model can make money, but he may be worthless, because anyone who's business model has become a commercial model, the first must be able to scale, followed by sustainable. We this mode, first cannot scale, because on any a Enterprise for effective of distribution are established in we itself on Bank, on customer of deep cognitive based Shang of, this understanding need is strong of bank credit experience of accumulated, and also to constantly to can followed form of development, constantly to upgrade and perfect himself, apparently this capacity is hard was scale of, also very to continued. So, go to the end you will find the business model it is difficult to set up, this is why we have a similar Internet not very optimistic that one of the main reasons the financial model, because we experienced, tried and had profound lessons.
Scale and sustainability, it has always been our business model behind two very important points. Many things it can make money, but it will certainly be valuable, by contrast are very good, but from an investment perspective, we prefer to value business models. We sold the site to a security company, expect by way of security for business can be sustainable scale, well too bad, can't wait for the Internet financial storm coming.
This is the second lesson, one thing, don't do it too early, and not the wrong thing in the world, only matches the right time to do the right thing, the same thing, done early may be illegal, doing almost exactly, is innovation. This is a reality you have to admit, 80 couples, will be shot, now didn't it? So, I always thought outlet must be justified, and by air can fly higher, then wait until the outlet of the mutual game problems, no outlet, you do in fact will not work, we talk about this topic.
We think it's time to give us some accumulate things for the future, is during that time, we had a company called Roland Berger Strategy consultants, give us a review of the global network of financial, hoping that the foreign company analyses to give us some direction. At of network financial, global are just started, Lendingclub also in do Facebook Shang of social loan, also do have is poor, Wonga also just began started, also has a United Kingdom of special famous of company, estimated now are no has's, called Supermoneymarket, is we at most bullish of company, we at analysis has more than 10 home company, now most are also good, just is regrets we first see has direction, is didn't can insisted to last. So he left the company.
Because he did not do, but thought the industry was a chance, how to solve this problem? So I told myself, you can't do it because you can't do too much, bad level, what to do? Which found an able man, better people, to help them, and then let them take your success, investing in nature is an admission that they can't do, and hope that others can do with your money, do not feel capable, because you're so capable, what you think you do.
Especially more so on the Internet. Me several times to chat with some great companies, they all say to me, such a simple model, we spend a 1.0002 billion. Oh, the basic fool's logic, Taobao's supermarket site, I personally feel 200,000 not to buy a template, Didi taxi software development estimates hundreds of thousands of dollars, would have done. However, but the problem is that you made a Web site, it doesn't mean you will become treasure, Didi did take a taxi? Very funny. People thinking of themselves in all things dry, it is cattle themselves think too. You are not God, am I going to do anything good? Get a good computer, thinking that they will get a good cell phone. Well offline shopping, thinking that you do an Internet service provider, is typical of the stupid logic, funny story is the boss of a lot.
Is because this reasons, we in at hold with try of attitude, investment has some wants to with looks also good of Internet financial company, but go to today actually I personal feel also is is pessimistic of, because I think now of Internet financial situation is not we had wants to do of direction, I feel road go crooked has, last year I almost one years in abroad, go has many national, wants to has many problem, increasingly think we of road go of not too on. So, today we pulled our own point of view.
Secondly, some opinions on current Internet financial and regulatory
When I Spring Festival, write an article, Internet financial text recalled more than three years, the main core idea is the Internet finance in the past three years right away, by capital onto a road to sheer size and number of users, rather than go to an efficient road pricing risk.
Financial of core I has been in said, key is to to points is how solution financial risk of problem, and not absorption funds issued loan of problem, from I himself feel absorption funds and issued loan are not what capacity, as long as you courage big, scale is is easy up of, but how guarantee absorption of funds, put has loan out zhihou, can received have back is most key of problem? If Internet does not work at this point in back of business models and innovation, personal feeling is a hooligan. At first I said, everything is not based on the risk control innovation, is a hooligan. That's what it means, unfortunately, we go for so many years, and no Internet financial has too much innovation here. Go to today, there have been various defaults and run events, is a market penalty on this going in the wrong direction, I believe that there will be more and more events, how to look at this thing? I think it comes to look at the question of supervision.
First, I want to say is that regulation is necessary, clearly now a consensus. On this, actually I in 2012 wrote had a article articles to regulatory layer, I of mean is global on not exists a not constraints financial regulatory of national, no must clear of rules and border, encourages financial savage growth, last of results is a to feather, Yu national adverse, and on real heart venture innovation of people for is a very bad of things, last of results is good to bad pay, what innovation are can encourages, but financial innovation need carefully, Because of his negative effect on surrounding industries to the national economy is too large.
Financial is a lever industry, he of nature is lever, exact said as long as play financial on must is take others of money to lending or investment of process, you if took himself of money to innovation or, to was people cheat or, shut I fart thing, but you took has others of money, people of money to put loan or sat investment, earned has money is you of, lost has money let people to bear, this innovation, actually nature on said bullying, if also encourages this bullying of things, that national exists of meaning in there does?
Countries is not binding the strong protecting the weak, society has certain rules so that everyone can live in a relatively safe environment. Not on the strong and the weak will be more and more room for survival, the end result is to have a strong rhythm of death. This innovation is meaningless.
Many of our economists, in fact, are not financiers, have them tell the macroeconomic, theory, learned of the so-called macro itself is a nonsense anyway, you sing free economy, experts, economy, experts, you see Andy Xie experts, bears the housing prices in China for 20 years, economists also unlike you?
So, anyway, just a few words, has to justify, saying private banks are their own, and you don't have to worry, this typical useless financial common sense can be economists, that what may not be economists do?
But we have to recognise that financial is a right and wrong places, areas where there are established rules, right or wrong is to speak clearly, many things can be logical deduction, or at least where there is common sense, this area should listen to real experts opinion and less flicker. Past is not prohibited by law, according to the non-financial sector can, but some in the financial sector is not enough, because when errors occur when all pay for your time. Now is when the bill arrives. Therefore, I would like to say is that the financial regulation is a must, no doubt, the key is how to control problems, is the question of how do you implement the regulation.
2nd I wants to said of actually is China of Internet financial regulatory has is missed has best of regulatory of time points has, you just began of when not regulatory, until has must of scale of when, again to hard a knife cut to regulatory, I personal feel brings of against will is big, we said regulatory has never not purpose, it just means just, through regulatory is to let market better, any for regulatory and regulatory are is didn't meaning of, brings of problem not market better has, but more bad has.
For example, last year's stocks of deleveraging, requires mandatory completion in two months, the final result is what? Only problems on a large area, with mountain climbing, people is not easy, hard to climb up the 5-kilometer mountain, and you asked him to go down within a month, what can you do? To jump off a cliff, can do?
I this in United States go has many place, also with many financial institutions chat, actually I also is is appreciate United States of regulatory way, everyone can to see Xia United States subprime crisis period of fed for representative of regulatory institutions made of series of processing crisis of approach, at least is according to market rules, gradually of slow to take game of way to solution of, with has so years to lever of, almost to has relative reasonable of level, are so-called disease to as mountain pour, disease to as snag, out has problem zhihou, To solve the problem is an exquisite living, cannot be resolved by administration, sport in a way, that's not realistic nor. This end result is caused by what? Society as a whole pays for some errors.
Logic, we present to the so-called Internet financial reorganization, must also be careful, because scale up, straight across at this time, the end result is what? May is tackle, finance is a liquidity led of industry, again good of financial institutions, again cattle of financial institutions once lost has liquidity, so eventually is became no meaning, so I is early of when said, as long as is Internet financial company eventually qualitative for financial institutions, so he on with traditional financial institutions by faced of problem is exactly of, key of key is liquidity of risk.
I recently wrote an article on the United States subprime crisis text, which gave me a lot of inspiration is that financial institutions should pay more attention to the balance sheet, profit is more important than a simple look. Probably used more than $ 1 billion to JP Morgan's 85-year history, in the United States received under fifth-ranked Investment Bank Bear Stearns, Bear Stearns that the headquarters building is said to be worth $ 1.2 billion. They are able to pick up a cheap addition to United States Government departments outside the bat, mainly because Bear Stearns rapid crash within 48 hours, but, in fact, not because it really needs to crash, but simply because people suspect it might collapse. This is the most frightening thing about this place.
There is a book called rumor killed the bear, based on mistrust Bear Stearns is mentioned in two days, Bear Stearns's clients and transactions to the home because of its doubts as to the ability to perform and a stream of $ 17 billion in cash, cause it was almost literally means "overnight" skidded to the edge of bankruptcy. This is a textbook about the modern financial system, it vividly illustrates the truth 1: supporting the modern financial system is not based on the most important physical assets in the physical world, but the system itself of confidence as well as the participant's credit in the eyes of the other participants in the system. Confidence, once shaken, and once the credit is no longer, no matter how high the building suddenly collapsed, even faster than the 911 World Trade Center.
Most glamorous time for $ 20 billion in the market value of Bear Stearns, on the occasion of negotiations and CITIC shares at $ 13.5 billion, just 1 until week seven reported acquisition of JPMorgan Chase over the weekend has left amid the bloody price of $ 240 million. Who said capital markets reliable Bear Stearns who worry, just anxious white anxieties.
Problem of real is: financial institutions to win high profit in recent years excessive to through financial acrobatics for was not should get loan of people provides loan, which and produced of risk through layer layer packaging was hidden up, no people can real see understand wrapping paper following of things, until one day suddenly was realized that wrapping paper following may is a heap no value of garbage, and even is 1 a hair-trigger of mines district, and soon to put this worried in market in the spread out.
Perhaps we can come to 1 conclusion, it is the valuation of financial institutions is to a large extent, not only its after-tax profits, not just look at the book value, while financial assets held by its risk factor, whether it corresponds to the book value of these assets is. And book value of assets is directly related to the liquidity risk, when enough liquidity, value, illiquid when value large areas to fall. So the current financial regulation if the Internet is not well balanced, so bring social problems would be a very serious problem.
So, we are both regulatory and practitioner, is called self-deception is not allowed, should clearly know who they are, are still talking about information intermediaries and credit intermediary. In fact, most of our current Internet Corporation for financial companies is financial in nature, this is reality, no need to deny, is is that there is nothing to be denied? Problem is the qualitative and financial institutions, taking into account the many problems is that as financial institutions how to Internet-control problems.
Third, in the current regulations do not understand, when you don't understand, entrepreneurs do? I've always felt that, this world is hard for you to understand other people, especially the regulators need to balance things too much, financial problems that appear to be financial problems, many of the problems are not the financial terms but in fact it can be resolved, but needs to be put to a higher point of view problems. This is because the owner is never unlimited resources of the Government, the question for the Government is maximum balance problems with finite resources, not simply solve financial problems, as if the problem were solved, unrealistic or impossible. So, he also needs to be balanced. This time, simple right or wrong it's hard to judge.
Under such circumstances, what do you think to simple speculation control, how to think, I personally feel are difficult, so what did you do? In fact, I personally feel, the only thing to do is to think about yourself, you want to be a good man, don't think about the use of financial cheat and don't have bad thoughts, really wanted to do something for the country for the people, then regulation comes at any time, you don't have to be afraid, can only see the question of supervision. As regards the regulatory framework for a lot of things, I will not speak, I, after all, people who cannot tell too many things, not here.
In here way spit slot Xia, we zhiqian of regulatory relative fuzzy, zhiqian regulatory views designated has a red said cannot illegal fund-raising, and cannot do funds pool, actually, are is no do had actual credit business, General reveals of commercial mode, must will has funds pool, this is very simple of logic of, any a market will has default, but default zhihou, you to reveals, and honour, do? First take profits advance, advances from the second capital, both will not work, what should I do? It can only lie to other people's money.
But the reality is it? These three businesses are mixed together, you are not clear. So the pool is inevitable.
So the fallback of business models, no default business models going to the end is to constantly cheat more money to the front of the business model (owed money), it's common sense. Reality is that the vast majority are doing such a thing, then the said regulation cannot have pools, the next step is how to play it?
The third issue, some simple comparison of financial
I personally feel like I'm on United States Internet banking is the so-called finteck, and understand relatively early, I bet people three years ago, companies such as lendingclub never upset the traditional institutions, but also less likely to have very high valuations, on the United States six categories of so-called finteck are not particularly optimistic about.
Reality actually is, recently United States of Finteck recently faced is big of challenge, valuation are in constantly of declined, actually are is in expected, don't to worship United States, two a national of their based environment are not as, many things don't wants to with made concept, concept eventually is need landing of, you design figure again better, you found last fell can't to, landing zhihou found is ugly, that as was people hit died of pattern. United States called Silicon Valley, Wall Street sent the battle for a long time, finally found that Wall Street has the final say, you Silicon Valley story better, funding amount, last sentence Wall Street analysts asked, you don't make money? Do not make money, lower their expectations and sell, sell, sell, it's as simple as that.
Vigorous wave of entrepreneurship in the past years, I personally feel will soon collapse, why, because most of them do not make money, didn't create the future, burned old money, new money to keep up, eventually bubbles burst, a feather pattern early.
We probably look at United States finteck a rough breakdown of pattern:
First is the underlying support platform, for example, paid Squad,levelup,FICO, and so on;
There is a loan company: Ondeck,Kabbage; student loans: SOFI;commonbond; personal loan platform: lendcingclub,prosper; wealth management company: batterment;wealthfront;
Then there is the raised platform, as well as a series of social investment platforms, such as motif and so on.
Basically this pattern, with the domestic is the overall classification is in fact very similar, and similar, many people say is the so-called foreign technology innovation, in fact in the financial industry also didn't have a lot of technical innovation, are also of application mode and market innovation. Are similar, but relative to domestically, not many institutions.
Internet banking is the same pattern of Sino-US, true platform model is not much, is probably two or three, or network model. They bring together business, which is spread business, this country are very much like domestic network of loan companies are all referred to as P2P, this is a matter of relationships, nature, the real significance of P2P companies is not much, with the United States, and only one or two institutions previously only Pat loan, now a borrowed treasure.
In contrast, the latter is more pure information platform. So it is really about the so-called information intermediaries defined, and with United States opportunities for up to two or three companies, is likely to be universal existence.
What is P2P? I always use marriage agencies as examples of P2P is the essence of a matchmaker, everybody to engage in activities together, you get a piece, you hook up, hooking up to who is who, marriage, divorce is your thing, I'm just helping you complete the procedure, only this. Really want to divorce take your advice. Chinese P2P what is it? He reveals to you, he makes sure you come right, must be able to find people, find people to ensure that no divorce, divorced his fallback. Essentially these are two distinct modes.
Could you tell us why the P2P model is hard to live here. Contrast United States easier some of the underlying environment platform, even if it is not a platform mode network the lending institutions, and it is not responsible for the losses of his investors, that is for what? I think related to the financial environment, and the regulation of business. United States typical are B2C, B2B, United States funded institutions, bodies mean two good points, is a fault-tolerant, which means that losses, after losing, he also does not matter. He can put the money in a variety of assets on a valid configuration, it would allow some loss, protection of overall is OK. Second, institutions professional and economical.
How does this understanding? Agency problem, after all, than some people see problems more accurately, because of the ability to do more research. Then he is also economic, because he has seen it drop on the 1000, 20 million, this time finding a bargain. Benefits can cover the costs.
However, individual investments? First fault-tolerant, the second is not professional, not the third economy. The first fault-tolerant is not personal money was hard earned, so after not taking risks, sit-in after losing to the parade, in fact, is not so good things in the world, well, you make a lot of money, you want to make trouble, where there is a good thing? There is risk in any investment, you have to accept, but as an individual is difficult, because your money is not easy.
Second is personal not professional, we had so many years of banking, he is afraid to risk assessment, a Member said better evaluation than we, I don't think you can evaluate it more, most of them are crap, and then simply believe that platforms and be done.
Third is not economical, cast a total of a hundred thousand of dollars, finally earned a total of tens of thousands of dollars, and their research, share risk, doesn't pay at all, and there is no need. C-dominated market, the final result will be above three scenarios.
Therefore, China's platform had to walk on my way to a guaranteed fallback to, throw you gave me does not guarantee will not vote for you. Chinese P2P first platform may want to do, so ended up having to do the credit guarantee, it means that you are not a platform, is a credit institution, this is different and the environment as a result of the great difference. I think China has so far not made the formal meaning of P2P Foundation and conditions for our current investors are dominated by individual, and the United States 80%-90% 's investors are institutions, in such cases make P2P between China and generated a great deal of difference.
From this point of view, this is not a a regulatory issue, not to say that supervision of a management approach, we must do the information intermediary can be a thing, there must be community based, so I think it has nothing to do with supervision requirements.
Second, once the information intermediary when the credit intermediary, the availability of sustainable large-scale capacity. This credit should be pleasant to the letter when it mentioned that carry the risk of the business model would certainly not be a higher valuation, for what? The first heart, because financial institutions ' capital constraints is the essence characteristic, you make more money, more capital is needed to just go, so his return on capital is not high. This logic is very clear.
Another reason is what? Financial risk is unpredictable, someone a few days ago I wrote on the micro-blog, he pulled in Wenzhou, mortgage and credit card assets of exemplified to me good, I scolded her asshole is simply black.
All smart people and smart people, likes to think of the past as in the future, or when became to present. In fact, the past and present always does not mean that in the future, humans continue to subvert the advances and changes.
We look back three years ago, four years ago, Zhejiang, many banks default rates are far below the national average, not to 1% the level of bad debts, but could use the numbers to rehearsal, Zhejiang's enterprise assets are good? Practice has proved that the once-proud of Zhejiang's enterprises, over the recent years witnessed a major test. Digital never be able to explain the problem in the past, now best of so-called personal data on the asset side, actually means anything.
All the risk is like an earthquake, these semi-fermented you see out of the ground, but his does not happen is for one day concentrated bursts, and once after the outbreak, you have not had an accident in the past is erased, this is the typical characteristics of financial risk.
So, in the financial sector, you say their risk is very low, it is not believed, even then he did not believe, there is really no way to believe you. When the subprime mortgage crisis, really involved in the subprime mortgage crisis is a flowering, but include Wells Fargo, capital one is actually not too much of a risk, but not on the market, so their valuations are a lot.
So in terms of credit risk, you are very difficult to prove you money or fallback capability, ability to control risk than others, so you look at the global financial institution system of valuation higher, PB around 1 time, and for what? Because the credit risk is measured, you're good, not your future will be better.
In fact, the past few years I have seen how many stupid, banking a few years ago, people called them a windfall, now called them every day and lose so much. Actually said they were profiteering and said they are the same people. They don't know the credit risk have a transfer does not depend on the individual, systemic risk is much higher than the individual risk. When you can make money in the market as a whole, you will find how can money lend to the probability, we used to lend, ious not playing, they will give you. What now? Don't issue ious, wife children mortgaged to you, are still running, because he couldn't make money, even if your credit is good, not as money yet. So, decided to life does not credit the individual capacities, but cyclical risk. Hello Kitty iPad Mini Case
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